Free Tip – The Best Bet of the day

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

3:20 Newcastle – Badri

There are a couple of interest at Ludlow on Wednesday, but the best bet of the day comes on the all-weather at Gosforth Park.

We haven’t seen BADRI since the middle of October, but that is no concern with a horse who tends to go well fresh, and was better than ever when bolting up over 6f here in August in a well-contested Racing League contest.

At the time of Badri’s win in August, Ruth Carr was otherwise in a lull, with only six winners from 109 turf runners in the summer months. She did a little better on the all-weather, but it wasn’t until November that she really struck form, with 43% of her runners winning in a purple patch in late autumn.

Badri was on the sidelines when the yard was firing, but he returns on an attractive mark, and although he’s never raced at five furlongs, he is a strong traveller who is best produced late off a strong pace, and strikes me as the type who may do even better in the helter-skelter world of 5f handicaps, and his half-brother Equality turned into a smart handicapper at the minimum trip last season.

Ruth Carr has no great reputation for having her horses fit after a break, but the actual stats for her break returners is positive, with seven winners from 73 runners in the past two years winning handicaps after a 60+ day lay-off. That is a modest enough strike-rate, but the odds of those winners have been 25/1 (thrice), 28/1 (twice) 33/1 and 11/1, thereby producing a profit at SP of €1,090 to a tenner stake.

Badri also has a history of running to form after a break with form after 60+ days off comprising a win and two places from three runs, including when beaten half a length and a head here last March on his debut for Ruth Carr after 18 months on the side lines. That augurs well for his chances, and yet he’s been priced up as the rank outsider in the BetUK’s Acca Club €5 Free Bet Handicap.

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