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2020 Profits + £1,445 To £10 Stakes
Rory Delargy is the chief British racing correspondent for the Irish Field newspaper, and also writes a daily column for the Irish Daily Star, having previously been a regular pundit on Timeform Radio and William Hill Racing Radio.
He is a regular contributor to the Weatherby’s Cheltenham Festival Guide, Attheraces and the Sporting Life among others.
Just to let you know I joined your service this week for a month. Great service, I'm far from an expert on horses but how you picked ' Yasir' at 16/1 and American life in the 2 selections today was brilliant.
I had an ew double on them. Also some great winners in the past few days. I'll be on board with a years membership when my month is up.
Well done , keep up the great work.
Every selection comes with a detailed analysis of why the horse has been tipped and why it represents value odds
For example this from September 26th 2020 ...
Take BOG if at all possible
2:25 Nmkt – 1.5pts win Miss Amulet @ 11/4 (general) - Result 2nd 5/2 SP
3:00 Nmkt – 2pts win Supremacy @ 13/2 (B365, Hills, BetVictor) - Result Won 13/2 SP
3:35 Nmkt – 0.5pts e/w Majestic Dawn @ 28/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places) - Result Won 40/1 SP
3:35 Nmkt – 0.75pts e/w Good Birthday @ 18/1 (SkyBet – 8 places) - Result 8th 20/1 SP
Total staked 6pts - Profit 38.75 Points
1:50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) 1m
Key aspect of racing at Newmarket on Friday was the tailwind which saw remarkbly quick times for supposedly easy ground, and gusts in excess of 50mph were reported at the back of the runners. That should help the front runners again on Saturday, with the forecast looking much the same, although these things do change and the weather will be key.
I don’t suppose this will be regarded as a vintage renewal if New Mandate – a nursery winner off 84 two starts back, and the most exposed runner in the field – is good enough to win, but the field look much of a muchness on paper, and the gelded son of New Bay did well to win the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster last time given he had to make his run on the inside which looked the place to avoid all week. He’s worth marking up for that, proved very determined to squeeze through a gap late on, and will be suited by at least a mile given his stout pedigree. He’s clearly not a Classic prospect for next season, but he may have an edge in maturity for now, and should give a good account of himself.
2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f
This looks much more straightforward on paper, and I’m very surprised that Lowther winner Miss Amulet was only second best in the betting when I looked yesterday. She is the clear form pick, continues to improve, and showed reserves of class to hold off the challenge of Sacred at York. That form was boosted by Umm Kulthum’s win in the Firth of Clyde last week, and although Sacred was beaten in the Flying Childers, she again hit a very short price in the run, and I don’t see that as evidence that the Lowther is overrated – quite the opposite in fact.
Dandalla is a smashing filly and it’s great to see her syndicate finding success for ordinary owners at Group level this season, but she comes from a yard operating at a 2% strike rate in the last three weeks, and that must be a concern.
3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1)
Back to the colts, and the picture again looks cloudy. I feel that the juvenile form among the colts has struggled to find a pattern this season, and that has been exacerbated by trainers being forced to rush their charges into early targets with Royal Ascot in particular coming too early in the covid-interrupted campaign. Aidan O’Brien has talked openly about how many of his juveniles suffered from a Royal Ascot hangover this term, and the effects of that will take time to unravel. As such, the youngsters who have thrived most are those who were allowed to peak more naturally, and it’s no surprise that the major players in the Middle Park were not asked to tackle Pattern company until July or later.
Supremacy is my pick here, and I’m gambling that the wind will be in favour of front runners, and that it will ensure that the ground remains no worse than good. That’s taking quite a lot for granted, but Friday’s racing emboldens me that conditions will suir. I was hugely impressed with him at Windsor where he was still green, and he absolutely blinded his rivals for speed in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. That form has hardly been advertised, but the winner was gearing down at the finish and still produced a smart time performance, which counts for plenty. Minzaal could be on the back foot if he starts slowly again as he has on all three starts, while Lucky Vega is respected on form, but is a horse who will surely stay further, and he could be vulnerable in a test of speed (that would be turned on its head if the wind is against the runners, of course).
3:35 – bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 1m1f
There are a million possible angles into the Cambridgeshire depending on how you view the profiles of the big fancies, the historical form, big race trends, the going the draw and the effect of the wind. Most of those will prove fruitless, of course, and my approach is more simplistic as a form-based punter. I certainly can’t expect to make money guessing which of the ten runners who have been backed into 14/1 or shorter in places has been laid out for this, but there are a number of exposed handicappers who have a similar chance on the book to the talking horses in the race, and while I accept that the winner of this race is likely to have been set aside specifically for the contest, there are a lot of places on offer, and I’ll be happy to find an overpriced runner who can nick one of those places at 33/1 or bigger. History shows that such horses also win the race from time to time!
Top of my list of overpriced runners is Majestic Dawn who ran a cracker in this last season on firm ground, and went on to win on heavy on his next start before again repaying each-way support over ten furlongs here on his final 2019 start. He’d not been seen this year until running down the field at Kempton ten days ago, but that run would have been needed, and if he’s back to full fitness, he looks like taking a big hand from what should be a positive high draw in 25.
We’re gambling on him being ready for this, and some will point to blinkers as a negative, but I disagree, even though I’m wary of headgear as a rule. Paul Cole – who now trains in partnership with son Oliver – is a fine proponent of headgear, and his younger horses have always been worth following when first tried in blinkers. I therefore take the fitting of headgear as a positive, and while there is an element of death or glory in backing a blinkered front runner on the back of a short preparation, I’m very tempted by the 40/1 on offer given he was only 8/1 for a stronger race last season.
Update: well backed this morning, but quotes from trainer are very positive, and 28/1 is just about acceptable, especially with BOG, as I can see him drifting again.
Of the others, a case can be made for plenty, but if I’m putting up Majestic Dawn based partly on his run in the race last year, then Good Birthday has obvious claims having finished third last year, and he’s much better off at the weights after a poor 2020. He has shown better signs on his last couple of starts, and while he tends to get going too late, he’s the ideal type to back with extra places as a result.
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The bets don’t go out until after 11am to ensure that the market is big enough and that prices aren’t disappearing – again, the goal is satisfied subscribers, not mythical profits. At least half the bets are where the price is available with most firms, although late non-runners can make this tricky at times.
I’d like to think that most subscribers could get matched on the exchanges at similar or bigger prices."
Well that’s the weans Christmas pressies taken care of.
Many thanks Rory, hope you and the family have a great Christmas."
What you need to understand about these previews is who is a good tipster and who is just knowledgeable and puts up the semi obvious? Some panel members do not get that upsets happen at the festival every year and so should look for the less obvious. I think that from the group above, Rory Delargy is a good tipster whereas the others are knowledgeable but not great tipsters. I think that Rory sees the bigger picture more" https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2020/02/17/apchat-2/#comments
What You Get...
Daily bulletins which are generally sent out around 11.30 – 12.00 each morning detailing the day’s best bets covering the flat turf/AW and also the jumping action. The full rationale as to why they have been selected can be read in a detailed blog in the members’ area.
Selections are never given out if under 2/1, and the average stake is 2-3pts each day, so we suggest a minimum 100pt betting bank should be set aside to cope with the ups and downs along the journey.
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Nice one, Rory. Was screaming at Mr Orr to stop looking behind him on the run-in, but did it pretty comfortably to be fair. Pity the sods at Unibet refused the bet, so I had to take “only” 28s elsewhere.