Free Tip – Earlofthecotswolds will relish the rain

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

3:40 Goodwood – Earlofthecotswolds

There were heavy thunderstorms in many places on Monday evening, and more rain forecast for much of the UK on Tuesday, so I’m wary of trusting going reports suggesting good or quicker ground. I’d be fairly confident that Goodwood’s turf will be soft given it was last weekend, and they have not been spared since, so I’ve headed there for the best bet.

I don’t think Earlofthecotswolds is leniently treated by the handicapper, but he will relish the rain-softened ground at Goodwood, and is totally unexposed under such conditions on the Flat. He didn’t really take to fences, but his record on ground softer than good at up to 2½m over hurdles reads well with four wins in five runs, and he has been a revelation on the all-weather since belatedly switched to the summer game, winning the All-weather Marathon Final on Good Friday at Newcastle.

Earlofthecotswolds is an outsider here, and appears to have a tough task conceding lumps of weight to Gary Moore’s Aggagio at first glance. If this was a hurdle race, the handicapper would expect him to concede two stone to that rival, however, and I’m not sure the task is as onerous as it first seems. Thrown in the fact that Gary Moore is producing winners at a rate of 4% in the past eight weeks compared to 38% for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and his prospects look pretty healthy.

In terms of stable form, I’d also have concerns over Emma Lavelle, whose last six runners have beaten just three rivals in total, and also Hughie Morrison, who has sent out one winner and one placed horse from 17 runners in the past fortnight. Themaxwecan needs quick ground, and the frustrating Morando has his conditions, but has won just once in the past three years.

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