Free Tip – Ballyconneely Bay could show himself ahead of the handicapper

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

3:15 Hamilton – Ballyconneely Bay

The rain has come at Hamilton, which was being watered every day until yesterday, and is expected to have been hit by more than an inch of rain by the time racing starts on Tuesday. That’s what I’m banking on, and these sudden changes of going can be a boon to the watchful punter.

The first race of interest is the Paycare Health Cash Plan Provider ‘William The Lion’ Handicap in which Ballyconneely Bay could show himself ahead of the handicapper for the in-form Julie Camacho.

Ballyconneely Bay ran very well to be second over C&D in June on dead ground, but disappointed on quicker going here on his most recent run. I’m of the opinion that the son of Fast Company didn’t enjoy the underfoot conditions, and his sire’s progeny have a marked preference for ease underfoot. Given seven weeks off since that rare disappointment, the selection arrives here fresh, and with the rain easing conditions, he should find himself in his element.

His record on good or softer ground now reads 2123, as opposed to 555 on quicker turf, and given he’s been lightly raced, it’s fairly clear that he’s fragile and best kept to an easy surface as a result. His win came on good to soft ground at Pontefract, but Timeform called the going heavy that day, and it’s clear that the more rain which falls, the better will be his chance.

In terms of his opponents, Mark’s Choice jumps off the page given his excellent third in the Great St Wilfrid, and he can race off a much lower mark here given he was out of the weights at Ripon. The problem with backing him is that the majority of his best runs have come at that peculiar track, and while Hamilton is dot dissimilar, Mark’s Choice has only run once in a handicap here, where he was eighth of 10 on soft ground.

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