Free Tip – A Solid Bet

Today’s free tip is below.

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Here’s today’s selection

12.45 Hereford – Brilliant Present 1pt Win

Just one jumps meeting on Tuesday, with Hereford holding the fort.

There looks to be a very solid bet in the Watch Off The Fence On Conditional Jockeys’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle which opens the card. Mojito Royale ought to run well now handicapping having been placed over C&D on his last two starts, but the one which stands out as being unexposed and sure to improve for a step up in trips now handicapping is BRILLIANT PRESENT for Nicky Henderson and Nathan Brennan.

A bumper winner at Lingfield 13 months ago, Brilliant Present is a full-sister to connections’ high-class chaser Gold Present, and as such is bred to need time and distance. She has qualified for handicaps by running over shorter, and her latest run saw her get outpaced over the minimum trip at Taunton, before staying on strongly when the race was over. She was fourth that day behind Earth Company and Gala de Corton, and with that pair both winning since, the form takes on a solid look. Back up in trip, and at a track with a stiffer finish, she ought to improve enough to defy what looks a very fair opening mark.

There is a tendency to believe that there is unlikely to be much value backing Nicky Henderson’s handicap debutants, but the reverse is true, and backing all of such runners blind over the past couple of decades would produced a profit of £2,176.80 to a tenner at SP, which is both surprising and gratifying, as is henderson’s 40% strike-rate at the track.

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