Thursday 26th January

Recommended: 

2.10 Sout – 1pt win Red Stripes @ 16/1 (Stan James, SportingBet)* 

3.00 Gowr – 1pt e/w My Murphy @ 22/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills)

no shorter

Total staked 3pts

———————————–

Southwell:

2.10 – 5f Handicap

Frustrating stuff today, as both intended recommendations have been punted heavily, and that’s especially annoying with Red Stripes, as we were with him last time when fourth over C&D, and would surely have been placed but for his rider allowing him to get over to the inside rail. Hugh Taylor has put him up at 33/1 this morning, and that price was massive. He’s only just a backable price now at 16/1 and I’d not be keen to take any shorter, but the upside is that while Hugh’s selections tends to shorten dramatically in the morning, they can drift back a bit, and the unfashionable connections might see us get a better price with BOG. As mentioned last time, Red Stripes has some pretty smart back-form over 5f, including here, and as a 5-y-o,should be able to stage a renaissance from a lenient mark.

Also of interest – Luv U Always is bred to excel over C&D, and has enough form to make her of interest – in fact, she looks a good thing if her second to Dazacam is taken at face value,with the winner now rated 86, some 24lb higher than when beating the selection by two lengths at Newcastle. Unfortunately, she’s now as short as 4/1, and that’s a little too skinny for me.

Gowran:

3.00 – Thyestes Handicap Chase

My Murphy has finished first and second (to Djakadam) in this race for the past two years, and he definitely pulls out a bit more for race like this, so makes plenty of appeal for each-way punters at 22/1. It’s a tough race as always, and several of those at single figures are interesting, with Tom Taaffe’s Rogue Trader perhaps the most appealing, but My Murphy ought to run his race again, and is the pick of the field based on course form, so rates the bet at current odds.

Regards,

Rory

Tuesday 16th February

Good morning all,

Thankyou all for your positive feedback yesterday, Rory and I are considering all your comments and it looks like the vast majority are in favour of us putting early bets up as long as there’s some structure to it. We will let you all know how it’s going to work shortly.

Today, there’s nothing of interest at Ayr for us but we are, for the first time in a while, going to have a couple of bets at Southwell. We’ve been monitoring the situation there for the past couple of weeks and hopefully things are starting to return to something like normality, so if we concentrate on those who should be on the front end, we ought not to go too far wrong.

Today

2.00 Southwell – 1pt win Glenbuck Lass (general 9-2, 5-1 Stan James a standout)

3.40 Southwell – 1pt win Robert The Painter (12-1 Betfred, Corals, Ladbrokes)

2pts staked

Southwell

2.00 – Unibet Offer Daily Jockey Specials Handicap (6f)

With Alan Bailey looking like he’s turned a bit of a corner (1 winner and 4 placed from last 6 runners) it might be time to give Glenbuck Lass a chance in a weak looking affair. She’s raced mainly at 5f and 7f in recent starts but it could well be that 6f may bring out the best in her. A running on fourth over 5f here in December, she’s shaped well in two races since that simply haven’t been run to suit her. At Kempton in early January she was held up well off the pace in a race that suited those on the pace, and then on her latest start the opposite happened – she chased the pace, which collapsed, and those held up filled the first three places. In the hope that she goes forward again from stall 3, she could prove too good for these.

Hab Reeh is consistent and is running himself into form but looks short enough for a horse with a poor win record. Money for First Excel would be interesting, as he’s unexposed and Roy Bowring knows the time of say here, but the way he was sticking on over 7f last time suggests he might need a bit further.

3.40 – Ladbrokes Handicap (7f)

The general thinking in these good class handicaps is that you need something proven on the track, but there surely comes a point when a horse has won so many here they become badly handicapped (as happened Dubai Hills here, who is at least slipping back down the handicap, and may be happening with Ian’s Memory and Philba now)) and it opens the door for those with lesser experience on the surface to shine, That could be the case with Robert The Painter here, a rare runner at Southwell for Lee Carter (1 winner and 1 placed from 6 runners) and a habitual front runner – one that’s more than capable of opening up 6-8 lengths on turf fields. If applying that run style here he could have plenty of these in trouble early on and they may not get back at him.

His chances of taking to the surface look good – sire Whipper has a 16% strike rate and a slightly better than expected winner to runner ratio than is expected. Good to see Joe Fanning keep the ride too, as he obviously knows the horse well, having ridden him on his last two starts,

Regards

David & Rory

 

Friday 8th December

Good morning all,

Today

12.15 Doncaster – 1pt win Minden March (14-1 various)

2.45 Lingfield – 1pt win Blue Surf (general 6-1)

3.50 Lingfield – 1pt win Saint Honore (general 10-3)

3pts staked

Doncaster

12.15 Keyhole Visuals Future Of Digital Media Handicap Hurdle (3m)

Nearly all of these have questions to answer on ground, track, trip or simply their current wellbeing, and we wouldn’t want to be taking a short price about anything. But we both agree on the most interesting horse in the race here, Minden March, who has probably taken a bit of getting fit, like most of Peter Maddison’s horses. He’s run well on his last two starts, clocking decent speed figures in the process, and on breeding is definitely worth a go at the trip. In fact he ran in this race last year, his only try at 3m, and wasn’t totally disgraced in finishing midfield. He’s just a horse that’s taken time to come to himself and has better form credentials than a few here.

Madam Lillibet is well handicapped on old form but simply looks sour, and even with blinkers on today, there’s no guarantee of that turning her fortunes around. If it does, she’ll handle conditions better than most, but she’s so risky these days, and her price is too short.

1.50 Premier Foods National Hunt Novices Hurdle (2m 140yds)

There’s no doubt that favourite Le Prezien is going the right way, and his form to date is hard to knock. The way he quickened up at Ludlow to win his race was quite impressive, and if he’s as effective on this slower ground he’ll be hard to beat. And whilst the alleged poor form of the Nicholls yard at present has been well documented, it’s not as bad as appears – granted, some have run below their marks and they’re not exactly firing winners in, but plenty are running fine and that in itself wouldn’t be a major concern. However, he does have to give a penalty away here and the ground will be different to that at Ludlow, so there are minor concerns to overcome.

Second favourite Knockanuss is the one with bigger questions to answer, in  my book. Originally bought by Willie Mullins for 180,000, he never saw the track for him, being sold on to Mick Winters instead. Beaten at odds-on on heavy ground in a bumper, he then won a weak one in the Summer at Killarney (good ground), with the plan (according to the trainer) to bring him back the month after for another Bumper, but again, he went on the missing list. He now reappears for Gary Moore, who presumably entered up here looking for better ground but that’s not materialised either. Moore is 0-9 on his rare visits to Doncaster, and I’d suggest Knockanuss has been hard to train, despite his point form being very good.

With that in mind, there’s scope for an e/w bet. Unbuckled would be the obvious one but the form of her win here is far from rock solid, and given she can be keen, she’ll need to settle or she won’t get home under a penalty. Neither Desertmore Hill not Impressively Fair come from yards doing anything at present, and the one to be interested in at a massive price is Busy Baro, not disgraced in a first time hood in a Towcester Novice hurdle last time, beaten just ten lengths with all the form horses in front of him. The speed rating achieved there suggests it was no fluke, and given he jumped left at times, going left-handed today may well help him raise his game again. Trainer’s two horses this week have both finished a good second, including one at 50-1, and he’s really not as far behind the principals on form as the market would have you believe.

Update – sadly, since I typed this up at 8am this morning, we’ve had two non-runners, including Knockanuss (taken out on ground conditions) and it rather limits the scope for a bet at present. The likelihood is that the fav will win, Unbuckled will be second but I’d be looking for Busy Baro to be third. Sadly, the “without the fav” markets are very weak at present and if we all backed him e/w without the fav, the price would collapse very quickly, and we wouldn’t get on. So wait until nearer racetime and look to back him then, either three places on Betfair or e/w without the fav.

Lingfield

2.45 Coral Handicap (1m4f)

Whilst there’s nothing wrong with the claims of Barye or The Steward here, they look too short in the market compared to Blue Surf, a horse that did the service a tremendous turn when taking a very strong Epsom handicap at 20-1 last year. The key then is the key today – he needs to be caught fresh, and despite running over further, 1m4f is definitely his trip. Once he’d won that Epsom handicap his next three starts were at 2m (doesn’t stay), 1m2f (too short) and 1m6f (again, doesn’t fully get home) and as a result, he’s slipped back to just 1lb higher than the Epsom win. It can’t be understated how strong that form is, and although he’s no form on the A/W we don’t see that as a problem. The booking of Adam Kirby looks a plus and although many will see this as a possible warm up for a crack at the Good Friday A/W Championships, that wouldn’t really make much sense given he’s best fresh.

First Mohican isn’t a forlorn hope here either, as his run over 10f last week was promising enough over a trip simply too short for him these days, and he has the form in the bank to get competitive here too. This race could be more competitive than the market may suggest, then.

3.50 Coral.co.uk Apprentice Handicap (1m4f)

Classic Mission has been well backed to gain compensation for his disqualification here last time, but he’s been raised 4lb for that and that puts him on a mark he wasn’t able to win off last year. It could be that now he’s “won” one he’ll win again, but there’s too many seconds on the card to be confident of that.

There’s no out-and-out front runner here, and this could turn into a bit of a sprint. That will suit Saint Honore, who doesn’t have great overall speed figures but does have the best finishing percentage splits in races run in a similar style to today’s. She might even be better than she’s shown so far, as her wins have come in races where she’s not really been ridden to best advantage, and as such, she’s ended up quickening up between horses that themselves are quickening. She may look better yet when things drop right for her.

Regards

David & Rory

 

Monday 9th November

Good morning all,

Rory is on William Hill Radio for the next couple of days and I’m at Southwell doing the pre-race previews, so that’s where I’ve concentrated my efforts. Sadly, I don’t think there are any big priced winners in there but I’ve included my write up for four races anyway, and there’s one bet on the card for me. Plus, a piece of info on one at Carlisle for you to read, although again the price is now a bit short for our liking.

Today

3.45 Southwell – 2pts win Hurricane Vic (9-4 William Hill, Betfred)

2pts staked

Southwell

The ground is likely to ride nearer soft than good to soft by racetime, I believe, with another 2mm of rain due this morning.

12.30 – 2m7f 209yds Handicap Chase

No shortage of pace on here with Cross To Boston and Kilcasan both likely to make the pace, and Urban Gale shouldn’t be far away from the front. A solid gallop will play into the hands of top weight MOORLANDS GEORGE, a thorough stayer in soft ground and is probably still improving. His distant third at Newton Abbot last time is easily forgiven as the ground was probably too quick for him, and if you concentrate on his efforts on good to soft/soft over fences, he comes out with form figures of 33123 and looks very solid indeed.

Mission Complete may well be the danger if he’s on a going day – he’s clearly regressing but goes well for Jack Savage (he’s been runner up on him four times from six rides) and races in Class 5 company for the first time in three years. He may be able to keep pace with these a little easier, although he’ll always need plenty of chivvying along, but the bottom line with him is that he’s very hard to win with, and he’s far more likely to hit the frame than win. Quicker ground may suit him better, too.

The rest are much of a muchness, although any money for Double Dan might be interesting. A winner of two (poor) points in Ireland, making the running on both occasions, he’s shown little for Alex Dunn so far but the application of blinkers might suggest he’s going to get a more positive ride today. The yard aren’t stupid and know what their horses are capable of, and in a weak event, a market move would make him worth a second look.

1.00 – 2m7f 209yds Handicap Chase

Still Believing looks short enough at 7-4 given she’s still a maiden over fences, and although Evan Williams has found a weak enough race for her to try and rectify that, she’ll need to be foot perfect as DISTRACTED looked much improved when making all at Newton Abbot on her latest start, jumping well in the main and not looking in any danger of defeat throughout the last mile. A 9lb rise demands more, but according to her trainer she wants soft ground and a trip, both of which she’ll get again today, and with no other obvious front runner in the field she can dominate proceedings again here.

Rosa Fleet looks on a reasonable mark on the best of her hurdles form, but she’s likely to need this and hasn’t conclusively proved she wants 3m either.

1.30 – 2m4f 62yds Handicap Chase

I can’t have Roberto Pegasus at all, given how he blundered his way around when winning at Plumpton and then unshipped his rider at the first at Haydock on his subsequent start. These Southwell portable fences take some jumping and catch plenty out, and he simply does not appeal as the type to do well over fences. There’s undoubted ability but whether fencing will show it off, well, time will tell, but at 3-1 he’s easily passed over.

Lac Sacre comes out pretty well on the figures, with soft ground almost a necessity for him, but he’s another that finds winning hard and is more likely to place than win. That makes him of interest for exotics, but not for the win.

The two to concentrate on for victory would appear to be Simply Wings, who can’t have it soft enough, has gone well fresh in the past, with Kerry Lee settling into the swing of things now and is having winners, and BENEFIT CUT, who we mentioned for his comeback race at Worcester in September and duly ran well. He’s been nudged up a couple of pounds for that but still looks on a good mark and this step back up in trip looks a good move. He’s every chance of getting to the front and making all (only Ladfromhighworth may challenge him for the lead, but the ground is totally against him) and backing Stuart Edmunds runners here at Southwell is already showing a good level-stakes profit.

3.45 – 2m4f 62yds Handicap Hurdle

This is dreadfully weak, and how HURRICANE VIC only has to give 5lb to some very moderate and fully exposed horses is something of a mystery. First time up last season he finished eighth to Hello George in one of the hottest Novice Hurdles around at Exeter (all seven horses in front of him were winners later in the season, including third placed Aso, who won a Grade 2 at Haydock) and followed that up with a second to the useful Brother Tedd at Kempton, where he was the only one to give the winner a race. Things didn’t quite work out for him after that, although he was far from disgraced in subsequent efforts, and this much easier contest looks a tremendous chance to score. He’s already got two speed figures on the board that would win this, and with the potential to do better this year as he fills his (large) frame, this is just a case of him being fit enough to dispose of a modest bunch.

Carlo Rocks is at least unexposed and having run his best race to date here, and that on soft ground, at least has that going for him and can do better this year. Double Court is only four and has time on his side, but his jumping technique is dreadful and he can’t be touched until that improves.

Carlisle

 4.00 – 2m1f NH Flat Race

Now, we’re a little wary here, as the last time we passed on information regarding one in a Bumper was back in April when we heard that one of Harry Fry’s horses was head and shoulders above the opposition in a bumper specifically for horses that had been in point-to-points, and he was stuffed out of sight. However, in our defence, the horse in question (Charmix) has since won a good Novice Hurdle at Wetherby at the first time of asking, so in fairness it’s entirely possible that the info was half-decent and Charmix simply didn’t perform on the day.

However, we’ll pass on what we’ve heard and you can do as you see fit with it. It’s been well backed already, and the horse in question is Threeways, travelling over from Ireland from Ronald O’Leary’s County Clare base. Ronnie is 2-2 in bumpers here at Carlisle and it’s to be remembered he was in charge when Fascino Rustico won his bumper here back in 2012 before being sold on the week after at Brightwells to Paul Nicholls for over 300,000 Guineas.

And what we hear is that’s the plan again – Brightwells have a sale at Cheltenham on Friday after racing, and they have been contacted by the trainer to try and reserve a “wildcard” space for this one, as you can’t enter the sale until you’ve had a run. So seemingly the plan is to win here, go to Brightwells and sell it on for a lot of money, very much his modus operandi with horses in his own or his wife’s colours.

Regards

David & Rory

 

 

 

 

Sunday 23rd August

Good morning all,

Today

4,50 Brighton – 0.5pts rev fcst Heartsong/Vincentti

1pt staked

Brighton

4.50 – 5f 213yds Handicap (class 5)

Both Rory and I like one for the sprint so we’ll have a go at the forecast. I like Heartsong, taking a drop in class and won’t mind any rain that falls between now and racetime and is probably better drawn out in the middle, given his style of racing and Rory goes with Vincentti, who needs a poor run forgiving last time but if you do, he’s got some of the strongest form in the race and three of the better speed figures this season too.

Regards

David & Rory

Thursday 20th August

Good morning all,

First part of our ante-post e/w double got in the places yesterday (don’t forget, as we were ante-post we get three places – if your bookmaker tells you any different, they’re trying it on) and with the price on Mecca’s Angel collapsing, it leaves us in a very good position for Friday.

Those of you who took the offer of 6 places with Hills would have got paid on Shore Step as well yesterday, b ut as we said, sadly we couldn’t put it up as not everyone would have received the offer. Silvery Moon ensured no damage was done yesterday and we go into today with a bit of confidence.

Today

2.30 York – 1pt win Easton Angel (general 9-2, use Bet365 as it will generate a free bet on the 3.05 if a winner)

5.35 Chepstow – 1pt win Awaywiththegreys (5-1 Skybet, 9-2 acceptable but no lower)

2pts staked

Chepstow

3.55 – 1m Handicap (class 6)

Weak, even for a 0-55 event, and many will look towards last time out winners Zeteah and Roxy Lane for the winner. The former,from a yard in tremendous form, won well at Salisbury but that was on much quicker ground than he will encounter today. He may well get away with the ground but that’s far from guaranteed and he’s short enough in the betting.

Similar comments apply to Roxy Lane too, and all her best form comes on a sound surface too. If Hess two fail to fire today, it leaves this contest wide open.

You’d want a massive price, but perhaps Ede’s The Business took a small step back in the right direction when 6th to Zaria over this C&D last time out. For a 66-1 shot she was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, sticking on well enough and this soft surface shouldn’t be an issue. She had no chance on her previous two starts when amateur ridden but had again outrun her 100-1 odds before that at Lingfield and the overriding impression is that there’s a modicum of ability there. She wouldn’t be one to go silly on, given her overall poor profile, but perhaps she can get in the frame at a big price today.

5.35 – 1m4f Handicap (class 4)

There are a couple of potential improvers in the field, namely High Admiral and Borak, but both need to bounce back from mediocre efforts last time out. In the case of High Admiral, it’s possible his poor effort could have been due to a second run back after a break, but equally that was on soft ground and that could be as much to blame. Borak has no qualms on the ground front but needs to prove he stays this far, so maybe AWAYWITHTHEGREYS can get back on the winning track, with plenty in his favour.

Better known for his exploits in the National Hunt field, he didn’t get the credit he deserved for beating Murgan and Black Key (a 14l winner since) at Haydock due to his 50-1 price tag, but there was no fluke about it and he ran as well at Pontefract next time up, leading two furlongs out but finding the 2m2f trip too far and weakening out of it in the final furlong. Dropping back to a mile and a half looks a smart move, as does the booking of the excellent Tom Marquand. Throw in the form of the yard (last 4 runners – 1211) and he looks a solid selection.

York

2.30 – Lowther Stakes (Group 2)

A good renewal of the Lowther, and morning favourite Lumiere will be well supported to follow up her impressive debut win at Newmarket. The dogs had been barking her name well before that debut, resulting in her going off a short 6-5 favourite, but she was most impressive in the race, making all and quickening right away for an easy 6l victory.

It’s worth bearing. In mind she was clearly ready for that event and there may not be as much improvement as people think likely. Her dam, Screen Star (also trained by Johnston) won easily first time up at Redcar but was never seen again afterwards, raising a small question. Plus, she will face slower conditions today and morning quotes of 6-4 do little to get the punting juices flowing.

The one who has tempted me is Michael Dods’s runner, Easton Angel, who was a debut winner on soft and who hasn’t had the credit she deserves for a huge run in the Queen Mary, winning ‘her’ race easily and then picking up again when she belatedly caught sight of Acapulco in the last furlong. In my opinion, she is closer to Wes Ward’s monster than the form suggests, and can be forgiven a lesser effort in the Duchess of Cambridge when scuppered by circumstance having travelled best. The return to five furlongs will suit, and although she can be considered an unlikely runner, the fact that she’s part owned by Al Shaqab Racing means it’s not impossible that she’ll be rerouted from the Lowther. If she does go for the juvenile race, she may still represent value as she’ll probably meet at least a couple of those who finished in front of her at Newmarket. My personal belief is that she will prove best at the minimum trip, but she’s a special talent, and I’ll be backing her today.
Hamilton

7.10 – 1m4f Handicap

We made mention of Baileys Concerto when he was entered up to run at Carlisle a couple of weeks ago, given he’d shown some promise on his second Flat start for the yard and looked well handicapped, but part of the reason for putting him up there was the return to Carlisle, a track that would have suited as it places plenty of demands on stamina, which is very much his long suit. Hamilton too places similar demands on stamina but the question today is whether soft ground will suit – on everything we know, he seems to need good ground to show his best. as such, no bet today but he’s still one we are interested in for the future.

Stratford

5.15 – 2m Handicap Hurdle

I was expecting the ground to be a lot slower at Stratford today, given I was just down the road at Worcester yesterday and it did nothing but rain from 2pm to 8pm, so I’m a little suspicious of the “good to firm” forecast that’s been given. Bearing that in mind, I can’t put Grams And Ounces up as a selection at present as he needs a bit of cut to show his best, but he definitely took a step back in the right direction at Uttoxeter (would have gone closer still but for mistakes at the last two) and he’s looking very well handicapped now. Keep an eye on the ground – good would be fine, but no quicker.

Regards

David & Rory

Tuesday 16th June

Recommended:

3.05 Ascot – 1pt win Air Force Blue @ 7/1 (general)

3.05 Ascot – 1pt win War Department @ 9/1 (various)

3.40 Ascot – 2pts win Meccas Angel @ 13/2 (general)

5.35 Ascot – 0.5pts win Areen @ 16/1 (general)

2.55 Thirsk – 0.5pts win Old Man Clegg @ 9/1 (general)

8.45 Beve – 1pt win Paddy’s Rock @ 13/2 (BetFred, BetVictor)

Total staked 6pts

———————————————————-

Ascot:

3.05 – Coventry Stakes

Just because it’s Royal Ascot, it doesn’t mean we’ll be going mad with our staking plan, but Tuesday looks the easiest day for punters in truth, and there are a few bets to be had. The market leaders in the Coventry look ripe for taking on at the early prices, and I’m surprised how big Air Force Blue is in the betting. He was Aidan O’Brien’s first 2-y-o this year to win on debut, and he looked pretty smart in beating a pair of next-time-out winners. He didn’t win by far, but was simply tiring late on as lack of fitness told, and that masks his superiority. He looks just as good as Jim Bolger’s Round Two, and is open to more improvement than most in the field. I’d have made him favourite, and in identifying dangers, it’s one who has a similar profile I’d want to save on. War Department has also won his only start, and while that came at unfashionable Leicester, William Haggas’s colt looked out of the top drawer as he scooted clear of a fair field. With the pair priced up at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively, we can afford to have a point on each.

3.40 – King’s Stand Stakes

I’ve been an avid follower of Meccas Angel for some time, and am adamant that there isn’t a better 5f sprinter than her in Europe. She was breathtaking on all four domestic starts in 2014, and improved again when winning a Group 3 at Longchamp on her return. The going was officially good to soft there, but she ran the trip in a spectacular 55.2 seconds, which means either the going was incorrect, or she is rocket propelled. I’d plump for a bit of both, and it should be noted that she was lumbered with a penalty there, meaning that she was actually conceding weight to most of her rivals, whereas she will be receiving 3 lb from all but two of today’s runners. The form of that race has worked out superbly, and she should be rated the pick of these if the margins are taken at face value, which seems a perfectly reasonable approach. She wasn’t extended to score there, and really does look a cut above the standard in this division. The worry for some is the ground, as she’s been kept to good or softer to date, but two  of her most impressive wins have come when the ground has ridden faster than advertised, and that sparkling time at Longchamp isn’t one of a “mudder”. She rates my nap of the week.

5.35 – Windsor Castle Stakes

Not a race for the faint of heart, but one who is underestimated by the market is Areen who was impressive on debut at York before ruining his chance by ducking left out of the stalls in the National Stakes at Sandown. That effort, when he seemed to fight Jamie Spencer’s attempts to cut across to the rail, is easily forgiven, and he will have learnt a bit from the experience.  Had he come here straight from York, he’d be half the price he is now, and this powerfully built juvenile looks a natural for a race of this nature. It’s hard to tell how good some of the opposition is, so we’re cutting our stakes down to the mimimum, which will still ensure a healthy profit if he justifies the faith.

Thirsk

2.55 – 7f Handicap

A risky one, but the best of these on the figures is Old Man Clegg, as he showed when runner-up to Birdman over C&D in April. That form is absolutely solid (well handicapped winner has won off much higher mark since), and Mick Easterby’s gelding is thrown in off a 2 lb lower mark now. The worry is that he’s failed to fire in three starts since,  but Spittin’ Mick won this race last year, and a return to this venue may well spark a revival. The bottom line is if he runs to the same level again, he wins, so it’s worth risking half a point at the general 9/1.

Rory & David

Friday 17th April

Good morning all,

On day when evening racing comes back into focus, it’s one of those meetings that we’ve concentrated on today with Southwell’s card looking the most likely to throw up a winner or two for us. Rory has one at Ayr he likes as well, a horse that landed a good touch for us last season when we advised him early at 10-1, and won nicely at an SP of 3-1.

Today

2.00 Ayr – 1pt win Love Marmalade (18-1 Stan James)

5.55 Southwell – 1pt e/w Hopeand (already advised at 12-1 last night but now drifting – 14-1 available in two places)

6.25 Southwell – lay 5pts Mr Mercurial at 1.6 in running (to lose 3pts)

6.55 Southwell – 1pt win Yes Daddy (4-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Stan James)

7.25 Southwell – 2pts win Ruaraidh Hugh (general 5-2, Ladbrokes 11-4 a standout)

9pts staked

Ayr

2.00 – 2m Handicap Hurdle (class 3)

Last season we put up LOVE MARMALADE at Musselburgh taking a massive class drop after a decent run, and it’s worth taking the chance that now he’s back on better ground, which is an absolute must for him, he may be able to bounce back from some moderate efforts. It could be that Spring is the time to catch him as well (three of his four wins have come in April/May), and given he was able to win off 75 on the Flat, a mark of 105 today looks well within his compass. Four runs over hurdles to achieve that mark have all been on soft/heavy ground, so are easily forgiven, and a better showing from a shrewd yard would not be a surprise.

Southwell 

5.55 – 2m Handicap Chase (class 4)

Moonlight Maggie and To The Sky will be popular for this poor contest but neither are solid options. Moonlight Maggie finally got her head in front last time out here at the Nottinghamshire venue, but she’s thrown winning opportunities away before and her jumping technique is still far from the finished article. At 6-4 she makes little appeal, even in a race as poor as this. To The Sky is more consistent but also has his quirks and can hang quite badly, and although he has conditions to suit, it’s a guessing game as to how he’ll take to the portable fences. One that has already won over these fences, however, is HOPEAND and she’s worth taking a chance on at a bigger price. She’s been rather out of her depth in races a little better than this and has had excuses for both her runs this year (couldn’t lead at Southwell, ground too soft at Leicester) but she has a chance to pop out in front here and get in a rhythm. She can be hard to peg back when doing so and is only 2lb higher than a fairly easy victory last summer at Worcester. Ground is ideal and she’s worth chancing.

6.25 – 2m4f Hunter Chase

It’s rare we play hunter chases but there’s an obvious bet here and that’s to lay the reluctant MR MERCURIAL in running. He’s already chucked away winning opportunities at basement prices (beaten at 1.01 and 1.05) in two of his three runs this season and is clearly not straightforward. A visor has been tried, blinkers have been tried and today there’s no headgear at all but a tongue tie is added. It does all smack a little of “try something else” rather than actually knowing what the issue is that’s stopping him winning, and if he got himself beaten again at a short price today it would be no surprise. It’s not like the opposition is poor, either – Owen Glendower would be a big threat if ready to roll after a break, Gansey was no slouch either, and both Catch Tammy and Roby De Cimbre have form on quick ground too.

6.55 – 2m Handicap Hurdle (class 4)

Whether you’d trust Mr Lando to repeat the dose he dished out at Huntingdon is a moot point, as he’s never been the most consistent but fair play to Alison Batchelor in getting a win out of him, something his previous trainer, Gordon Elliott, couldn’t do! If he’s allowed a soft lead again tonight he would be dangerous but that’s not guaranteed with Ravenous in the field and a better play might be YES DADDY, who has been shaping well on the Flat recently and returns to the venue of his hurdles win of last season. He won that race well, battling on with great determination up the straight, and was far from disgraced in much better company next time out at Cheltenham. Quick ground clearly suits and it will be a surprise if Robert Stephens can’t place him to good effect over the summer.

Ice N Easy faces an easier task than of late and might prove troublesome, but he’d ideally want a bit further. Moidore looked an absolute shadow of himself last time out though and can’t be entertained.

7.25 – 2m4f 100yds Handicap Hurdle (class 4)

These look a moderate bunch at best at it represents an excellent chance for RUARAIDH HUGH to follow up on his Market Rasen victory last week. Well backed that day and ridden with plenty of confidence, he merely had to be pushed out from two out to gain an easy victory, and this extra furlong and a half will only help him further on that evidence. He’s only 1lb higher here, in effect, and if he only reproduces that effort it would be good enough. The fact that he should improve again only makes him look even more attractive and he really ought to be a shorter price than he is this morning.

The fact that second favourite Rocky Rebel only won a selling hurdle last time tells you all you need to know about the quality of the race, and it’s quite possible there’s something at a big price that could improve and get involved. Craigdancer looks by far the most likely of those at larger odds, having run considerably better on his handicap debut at Market Rasen, but he didn’t look the easiest of conveyances in the closing stages when put under pressure. Nevertheless, he is at least going the right way and can be considered.

Regards

David & Rory